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LATEST Forecasts POSTS

An all too familiar sight on our Mount camera these last few months.

Forecast Blog: Northern Hemi sneaker swell?

Forecast Blog: Northern Hemi sneaker swell? By Paul ‘Greeny’ Greenland.  So in the midst of the worst westerly Equinox in five years, the upper North Island’s East Coast sits in a wave drought of mind-bending proportions. At this stage, to many there seems like no end in sight.  Well, I’m here to tell you there […]

Current wind analysis of the

East Coast non-swell alert and mid-spring climate update.

East Coast non-swell alert and mid-spring climate update.  So mid-way through the spring season everything is going along right on track with what I laid down in my Equinox and El Nino (click pinks for links) forecast almost two months ago. The warm event in the Pacific is still progressing nicely with another two Kelvin waves […]

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The West Coast and the Continental Shelf.

The West Coast and the Continental Shelf – Why the West Coast of the North Island doesn’t really get giant surf despite bearing the brunt of some of the largest swells on the planet.  By Paul ‘Greeny’ Greenland. Click pink links for nerdy stuffs on Wikipedia…   I often get people telling me stuff like […]

JASON2 data overlaid on a WW3 sea-height graphic.

The big purple blob – West Coast and Fiji Swell Alert.

The big purple blob – West Coast and Fiji Swell Alert.  By Paul ‘Greeny’ Greenland.  There’s a purple monster heading our way and no, it isn’t Barney the Dinosaur, but a rather large pulse of SW swell, one of the biggest in the last few years. A deep extratropical low to the SW of the […]

Earth.nullschool frame grab of the low off shore of NZ.

East Coast Swell Alert – Tuesday night update.

East Coast Swell Alert – Tuesday night update. By Paul ‘Greeny’ Greenland.  Ok, so we have some confirmations via satellite and buoy data, as well as ground observations this evening. The Coro is picking up solidly this arvo with a good 3-5ft on the exposed beaches. Buoy data at the Mount and on Auckland’s East […]

GFS based, WW3 models are suggesting a tight band of 22-28ft seas within a hundred nautical miles of the Upper N.I East Coast, and even closer for the East Cape region. This will result in heavy storm surf of for beaches exposed to East Swell through late Tuesday into Wednesday arvo.

East Coast Swell Alert – Bombing Spring Low.

East Coast Swell Alert – Bombing Spring Low.  By Paul ‘Greeny’ Greenland.  So most of you will have been frothing on the models over the past few days and rightly so. A rather unseasonal tropical low is currently to the NE of NZ and is forecast to undergo explosive intensification overnight as it encounters a […]

GFS fo

Special Forecast – The Equinox and El Nino – what’s the story?

Special Forecast – The Equinox El Nino – what’s the story? By Paul ‘Greeny’ Greenland I’ve been threatening to write a forecast/analysis on the potentially developing El Nino (click for link to Wikipedia)  for around six months now. Actually, that’s a lie, I almost wrote one last September until I saw the budding little warm phase […]

WW3 forecast showing the huge area of swell pushing past and up out East Coast.

Swell alert – Wellington’s drought-breaker plus another Code Red for Tahiti.

Swell alert – Wellington’s drought-breaker plus another Code Red for Tahiti. By Paul ‘Greeny’ Greenland So, after a rather benign winter as far as the storm-track in our neck of the woods is concerned, with the Indian Ocean stealing the Lion’s share of the storm activity for most of 2014. A split-jet stream has been […]

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Billabong Tahiti Pro FINALS LIVE ON GOSURF

Live. Now and it’s going nuts….   

UKMO model forecast for Thursday showing W/SW winds across the upper-North Island (purple arrow) And the fetch in the low tilting out of line with NZ as the anchoring high slips to the east, pushed out of the way by the trough and low to its south.

East Coast Swell Alert: Small wind & ground swell event to break the drought

East Coast Swell Alert: Small wind & ground swell event to break the drought.  20th May 2014 By Paul ‘Greeny’ Greenland.  After a few weeks of no proper swell, the East Coast of the Upper-North Island looks likely to get a drink over the next few days as a pair of small sub-tropical lows form […]