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LATEST Forecasts POSTS

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Special Forecast – Tropical Outlook Tues 27th Jan

Special Forecast – Tropical Outlook Tues 27th Jan By Paul ‘Greeny’ Greenland So it’s been a slow one for the Tropical Cyclone season thus far with only one TC, Niko, so far. Niko formed so far out into the Pacific and was barely even a proper storm only briefly touching true hurricane strength (65kt/117km/h) over […]

UKMO model showing the lows possible position into Thursday and Friday aiming a solid fetch of easterly winds at the country. Source: UKMO

Tropical Outlook – Stirrings above NZ

Tropical Outlook – Stirrings above NZ By Paul ‘Greeny’ Greenland. Well we are in to the middle of January and are still to see any real action in the ocean to the north of the country but as I mentioned a week or so ago, things are warming up and we could well see some […]

Satellite image of the SW Pacific showing the intense thunderstorm activity (red blobs) in the ITCZ (black line)

Special Forecast – Tropical Outlook

Special Forecast – Tropical Outlook  By Paul ‘Greeny’ Greenland So two full months into the SW Pacific Tropical Cyclone season we are still yet to see anything more than a tropical depression form in the waters to our north. This is due to a couple factors, initially early season conditions weren’t, as is usually always […]

GFS modeling suggests the low will develop into a marginal Cat 1 into the end of the week. Source: Stormsurf

Tropical Outlook: The first Cyclone of the season?

Tropical Outlook: The first Cyclone of the season? By Paul ‘Greeny’ Greenland. Well, after a long, horrible equinox for NZ with a very wintry pattern extending almost all the way to the Summer Solstice and the start of the solar summer (Dec 21/22), things are finally starting to change into a more settled, summery pattern. […]

An all too familiar sight on our Mount camera these last few months.

Forecast Blog: Northern Hemi sneaker swell?

Forecast Blog: Northern Hemi sneaker swell? By Paul ‘Greeny’ Greenland.  So in the midst of the worst westerly Equinox in five years, the upper North Island’s East Coast sits in a wave drought of mind-bending proportions. At this stage, to many there seems like no end in sight.  Well, I’m here to tell you there […]

Current wind analysis of the

East Coast non-swell alert and mid-spring climate update.

East Coast non-swell alert and mid-spring climate update.  So mid-way through the spring season everything is going along right on track with what I laid down in my Equinox and El Nino (click pinks for links) forecast almost two months ago. The warm event in the Pacific is still progressing nicely with another two Kelvin waves […]

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The West Coast and the Continental Shelf.

The West Coast and the Continental Shelf – Why the West Coast of the North Island doesn’t really get giant surf despite bearing the brunt of some of the largest swells on the planet.  By Paul ‘Greeny’ Greenland. Click pink links for nerdy stuffs on Wikipedia…   I often get people telling me stuff like […]

JASON2 data overlaid on a WW3 sea-height graphic.

The big purple blob – West Coast and Fiji Swell Alert.

The big purple blob – West Coast and Fiji Swell Alert.  By Paul ‘Greeny’ Greenland.  There’s a purple monster heading our way and no, it isn’t Barney the Dinosaur, but a rather large pulse of SW swell, one of the biggest in the last few years. A deep extratropical low to the SW of the […]

Earth.nullschool frame grab of the low off shore of NZ.

East Coast Swell Alert – Tuesday night update.

East Coast Swell Alert – Tuesday night update. By Paul ‘Greeny’ Greenland.  Ok, so we have some confirmations via satellite and buoy data, as well as ground observations this evening. The Coro is picking up solidly this arvo with a good 3-5ft on the exposed beaches. Buoy data at the Mount and on Auckland’s East […]

GFS based, WW3 models are suggesting a tight band of 22-28ft seas within a hundred nautical miles of the Upper N.I East Coast, and even closer for the East Cape region. This will result in heavy storm surf of for beaches exposed to East Swell through late Tuesday into Wednesday arvo.

East Coast Swell Alert – Bombing Spring Low.

East Coast Swell Alert – Bombing Spring Low.  By Paul ‘Greeny’ Greenland.  So most of you will have been frothing on the models over the past few days and rightly so. A rather unseasonal tropical low is currently to the NE of NZ and is forecast to undergo explosive intensification overnight as it encounters a […]